Italy’s Minerva project trained from scratch on 2.5 trillion tokens but scored only 4.9% on Italian academic tests, raising questions about scale and investment.
Minerva. The opposite path.
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Advanced Topics in SQA
256 posts
The Forecast Is the Plan.
Major AI labs publicly commit to automating AI R&D by 2026, signaling a shift from aspiration to strategic execution, with significant industry implications.
AMÁLIA · The Three Hard Questions.
Portugal’s €5.5M AMÁLIA project, a European Portuguese large language model, is operational but faces key structural questions about openness, native data, and goals.
The Atlas. What the framework is.
An in-depth analysis of the Post-Labor Transition Atlas, its empirical basis, structural insights, and implications for AI-driven labor displacement.
China Sphere Capability Gap, Q2 2026 Update: Five Labs, Five Strategies, One Narrowing Frontier
Five Chinese labs shipped frontier-tier models in April 2026, narrowing the capability gap with US leaders while maintaining cost and licensing advantages.
The Machine Economy — Capital-Heavy, Human-Light, Trading With Itself
Analysis of the emerging machine economy where AI-driven firms operate with minimal human involvement, reshaping markets and economic structures.
The Co-Founder’s Black Hole — A Structural Read on Jack Clark’s Automated AI R&D Essay
Jack Clark predicts over 60% chance of fully automated AI research by 2028, raising concerns about institutional capacity and future unpredictability.
732 Bytes to Root. One Hour of Scan Time.
A new Linux kernel privilege escalation bug was found using just one hour of AI-driven scanning, collapsing previous cost assumptions for zero-day exploits.
Every Benchmark Launched 2023-2024 Has Fallen — The METR / SWE-Bench / CORE-Bench / MLE-Bench / PostTrainBench Sequence
Every major AI R&D benchmark launched between 2023-2024 has reached saturation or is nearing it, indicating rapid progress in AI capabilities.
Jack Clark Says It Out Loud — Reading the Co-Founder’s 60%/2028 Estimate on Automated AI R&D
Anthropic’s co-founder Jack Clark publicly estimates over 60% probability that autonomous AI systems capable of self-innovation will emerge by 2028.
