🔍 Read the full analysis: The Subsidy Behind The Number: SemiAnalysis On AI Subscriptions on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
SemiAnalysis compared the usage limits of major AI subscriptions with the cost of buying equivalent tokens through each provider’s API. For selected mid-tier models and an agentic coding workload, it estimated Claude plans deliver roughly 5.4 to 5.6 times the API-equivalent value of comparable ChatGPT plans; the report also describes recent limit and pricing changes that affect the comparison.
SemiAnalysis has published a metered comparison of major AI subscriptions, estimating how much equivalent usage would cost at each provider’s API list prices. For one agentic coding workload using the selected mid-tier models, its analysis puts comparable Claude plans at about 5.4 to 5.6 times the API-equivalent value of ChatGPT plans, while warning that limits and prices have recently changed.
The report tested usage by token type, tracking how subscription usage bars moved and translating the resulting allowances into API-list-price equivalents. Its central comparison uses Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6.1 Sol. For plans priced at $20, $100 and $200 a month, SemiAnalysis estimates API-equivalent value of about 58 times the fee for Anthropic’s plans and about 10.5 times for OpenAI’s. The comparison reflects the report’s specified workload and assumptions, not a universal measure of value for every customer.
The workload is described as agentic and dominated by cached input: roughly 96.6% cached input, with about 0.4% fresh input, 2.6% cache writes and 0.3% output. SemiAnalysis says the gap remains large when usage is compared in raw tokens, rather than only in dollars. It also notes that the API-equivalent figures are sensitive to model prices: a lower API price reduces the dollar value assigned to a given token allowance.
The report says OpenAI recently cut token allowances for its $200 plan by roughly half, with new purchases receiving the lower limits immediately and existing subscribers retaining prior limits until October 29. It also describes a new $500 tier, whose stated attraction includes an Ultrafast mode that SemiAnalysis says it is still testing. Anthropic’s recent model price reductions did not all come with matching allowance increases: according to the report, Fable 5.1 launched without a limit increase, while Opus allowances rose by about 20% on Max and 50% on Pro.
The 5x is a subsidy, not a price
SemiAnalysis metered the meters — every major AI subscription, token type by token type, converted to API list value. On the mid-tier models both labs call the daily driver, a Claude plan returns ~5–6× the API value of the matching ChatGPT plan. Real — and the least durable number in the report.
…and the plan is fully exhausted. One pool for every model.
…and the plan is only half used — Fable is capped at 50% of the limit, leaving the rest for Opus/Sonnet. That’s where the mid-tier gap compounds.
- $200 plan halved — Sol-class value down >50% (6.1 Sol cache price cut compounds it)
- Old limits kept until 29 October; new buyers cut immediately
- New $500 tier: only +21% Astra vs the old $200 — real draw is 300 TPS Ultrafast
- Ladder flattened: Pro 100/200/500 now identical per dollar; multipliers removed from pricing page
- In OpenAI’s favour: no 5-hour window on Pro plans — easier to use the full allowance
- Flat per-dollar value across all tiers, before and after
- New premium models placed at lower relative limits (Fable capped at 50%)
- Opus allowances raised ~20% (Max) / ~50% (Pro) with the 5.5 price cut — not enough to fully offset it
- Repeatedly walked back planned cuts earlier this year under pressure from OpenAI’s generosity
- Twelve months ago, OpenAI was the generous option. Positions swap.
Gross margin per plan, assuming 92% API gross margins. The subsidy lives almost entirely in Opus and Sonnet usage — Anthropic would already be near software-like subscription margins if everyone used only Fable. Subscriptions matter even more for OpenAI, where they’re a larger share of revenue.
Three identical subscriptions; one had ~20% lower limits. The provider (unnamed) confirmed an “extremely tiny” A/B test on limit balancing. Two lessons: limits can change silently, per account, at any time — and you won’t know without instrumentation. The usage bar is a percentage, not a contract.
If you’re choosing a plan this month for agentic coding on a mid-tier model, the report settles it: a Claude plan returns ~5–6× the API value of the matching ChatGPT plan. But a plan returning 58× its fee on a model served at a steeply negative margin for heavy users is a marketing budget with a usage meter. Value moves silently, gets A/B tested per account, and twelve months ago ran the other way. Use the subsidy while it exists — it’s genuinely large. Don’t build a cost model on it. Price workloads at API rates, keep a router between you and any one vendor, and benchmark open weights on your own hardware for steady volume. A deal you can’t verify isn’t a price. It’s weather.
Subscription Value Meets Inference Costs
The comparison matters because an AI subscription is not simply a cheaper way to buy a fixed amount of API usage. Heavy-use limits can cost providers more to serve than the monthly fee suggests, while customers’ realized value depends on which models they use, how often they use them and whether time-based restrictions apply.
SemiAnalysis estimates subscriptions account for about 10% of Anthropic revenue but can use more than 40% of its inference compute. It estimates this lowers blended revenue per megawatt by roughly $36 million. The report says subscriptions form a larger share of OpenAI’s revenue, though it does not give a corresponding figure in the supplied material. These are estimates, not audited company disclosures.
The report’s margin calculations illustrate why utilization matters. Assuming a subscriber fully uses the allowance and API gross margins of 92%, SemiAnalysis estimates gross margin of about minus 369% for maxed-out Opus 5.5 usage and about 1% for Fable 5.1. At an assumed 20% average utilization, its estimates rise to about 6% and 80%, respectively. These figures are model-based scenarios, not measured margins for actual subscribers.
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How Prices Change the Comparison
Subscription value in the report is calculated by pricing a plan’s full monthly usage allowance at the provider’s first-party API list rates. That makes the results a comparison of allowances and API prices, rather than a claim that every subscriber consumes the full allowance or receives that amount of economic benefit.
Price changes can shift the calculation even when usage limits stay the same. SemiAnalysis says Anthropic reduced Fable 5.1 cache-read prices by 75% compared with Fable 5, and cut Opus 5.5 input and output prices by 20% and cache-read prices by 60% compared with Opus 5. It says OpenAI also cut GPT-6.1 Sol’s cached-input price without increasing its limits. In both cases, lower API prices reduce the report’s API-equivalent value unless subscription allowances rise enough to offset them.
The mid-tier comparison is not the whole product picture. At the frontier tier, the report says GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1 have broadly similar limits. It estimates a $200 OpenAI plan’s Astra allowance at roughly $2,897 in API value. Fable can use only half of a Claude plan’s limit, according to the report, leaving the rest for other models. OpenAI plans also lack the five-hour usage window SemiAnalysis identifies on Anthropic plans, a difference that may matter to customers who use a large share of their allowance in short bursts.
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Usage Limits and Margins Remain Estimates
The reported multiples depend on specific models, workload composition, API prices and plan limits. They should not be read as a guarantee that a typical subscriber will receive five times as much practical value from one service. The supplied material does not provide the full test protocol, sample sizes, or independent verification of every limit measurement.
It is also unclear how representative the report’s assumed 20% utilization is, or how many customers approach their maximum allowances. The revenue and compute shares, along with the margin scenarios, are SemiAnalysis estimates rather than figures confirmed in company financial statements. The report says it is still testing OpenAI’s Ultrafast mode, so its practical effect on the $500 tier remains unsettled.
Subscription limits and API prices can change, and the comparison describes a particular point in time. The report’s stated October 29 date for existing $200 subscribers is tied to the limits described there; the supplied material does not establish whether later policy changes have occurred.
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Watch for Further Limit Changes
The next useful test is whether providers change subscription allowances when they reduce API prices or introduce new models. Customers comparing plans should check the current model-specific limits, eligible usage windows and API rates rather than relying on a single headline multiple. OpenAI’s reported October 29 grandfathering date is a specific milestone for existing $200 subscribers, while SemiAnalysis says its testing of Ultrafast mode is ongoing.
Further reporting or provider disclosures could clarify how typical utilization compares with the report’s scenarios and how subscription compute use affects margins. Until those details are available, the analysis offers a snapshot of measured limits and stated prices, not a lasting ranking of AI plans.
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Key Questions
What did SemiAnalysis compare?
It measured subscription usage allowances by token type and compared their estimated value with the cost of equivalent usage at providers’ API list prices. The central comparison uses Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6.1 Sol on an agentic coding workload.
Does the report say Claude is always five times better value?
No. Its roughly 5.4-to-5.6-times estimate applies to selected mid-tier models, plan prices and workload assumptions. Model choice, actual usage, time limits and changing prices can alter the practical comparison.
What changed for OpenAI’s $200 plan?
SemiAnalysis says OpenAI roughly halved the plan’s token allowances. It reports that new buyers receive the reduced limits immediately, while existing subscribers keep the previous limits until October 29.
Why can a lower API price reduce subscription value?
The report calculates API-equivalent value by pricing the subscription allowance at API list rates. If the API price falls but the allowance stays unchanged, the calculated dollar value of that allowance falls too.
Are the report’s margin figures confirmed company results?
No. They are SemiAnalysis estimates and scenarios based on assumptions including API gross margins and subscriber utilization. The supplied material does not present them as audited or company-reported margins.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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